A STEADY, FLAT REAL ESTATE MARKET CONTINUES IN GREATER VICTORIA

VICTORIA, BC— The August real estate market continues to be steady and flat, considered by the Victoria Real Estate Board to reflect the “wait and see” attitude its Member REALTORS® are hearing from the buying public.

Total MLS® residential sales for August 2012 was 462 compared to 542 for the same period in 2011. During the month, 240 single family homes sold throughout the Victoria Real Estate Board’s region, 67 fewer than the 307 sold in August 2011. The average price for single family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $590,843, down from August 2011’s average of $652,841. The median price is down by $17,000 to $530,000. There are 5,034 active listings.

“Sales are down 11.5% over August 2011” says Carol Crabb, President of the Victoria Real Estate Board. “When seasonally adjusted, there is little change from July 2012. It’s a flat market which we suspect will continue for the next few months and not trending in either direction.”

The overall provincial outlook is strong, with employers replacing part-time positions with full-time, and ongoing low interest rates. The British Columbia Real Estate Association predicts the resulting consumer confidence will move the provincial economy from flat to strong in 2013.

Other categories are also holding steady. Condominium and manufactured home sales are virtually unchanged over August 2011, while townhomes sales continue to be softer.

(h)(r)(s)

Another summer draws to a close amid a general pessimism in regards to the real estate market.  It seems that most people I talk to feel that the market is in a far worse position than it was just a year ago.  The question is, is that feeling based on fact or fiction?

Read on, I think that you may be surprised!

First, let me set the stage.  If you have been reading my Monday morning blog over the years you will know by know that I stick to the facts.  I believe firmly that in every market, hot or not, there are opportunities and risks.  Knowing what is going on will give you the tools you need to buy and sell smarter, no matter what the market conditions. 

As I said, most people are very pessimistic right now about the real estate market.  But, the facts simply do not support that belief.  Yes, pricing is not at the highest level that it ever has been at, and the number of properties for sale is on the high side.  But, things are really not that bad.  Comparing to this point in 2011 we see that prices for detached houses are down about 3%, the volume of sales down 15%, and inventory up 3%.  No, not the best of news but lets be realistic.  Prices down 3% is not a catastrophe.  We see season fluctuations in excess of that throughout the year.  What most forget to take into account is that last summer was one of the best markets that we have seen in a long time!  For example, if we compare to 2010, we see that the 2012 volume of sales is up a huge 23% with prices still off only 3%.  Clearly, we are slightly below the price peak, but far more houses are selling this year than back in 2010. 

The story with condo sales is similar.  Condo volume is off 2% and prices are down 5% compared to 2011.  When comparing to 2010 we see that prices are down 9%. But, I would argue that this is not all a decrease in the value of condos.  The trend for newly built condos is smaller and cheaper so this is bringing the median price down.  Again, like with houses, buyers are there and willing to buy at the right price.

The message that I want to get across this Labour Day Monday is that you can definitely selling your home quickly in this market.  But, there is a lot of competition so will need to price it properly, and “properly” means at a slightly lower number than you probably think it is worth.  Find yourself a good Realtor and trust their advice in regards to pricing.  If they know your neighbourhood and sell enough homes to be experienced, they will be able to set a price which will attract a buyer in short order.  Do not, do not, do not argue with Realtor and get them to set a price higher than they believe your house is worth!  That’s a guaranteed recipe for failure.  I regularly turn down listings for exactly that reason. For example, from time to time a seller will decide not to list with me because I gave them an honest market value lower than they believed their house was worth.  Whenever that happens I track the property until it sells.  Guess what… It’s an extremely rare occurrence that they sell for more than the range that I specified.  In fact, in most cases they languish on market for 3, 6 or 9 months and then, because of the long time on market, end up selling for below market value.  It’s not that I am the best Realtor at pricing. I am simply as skilled as many of my other full time colleagues who are immersed in the market everyday. 

The moral of the story here – the market is pretty stable and there are plenty of buyers out there.  Find a good Realtor and trust their opinion in regards to pricing and market strategy.  I know that not every colleague of mine is equal, but there are a lot of very qualified Realtors out there who can help you be successful in today’s market.

Here are the stats from the last 30 days:

Over the last 30 days, 205 single family houses were sold, up by 1 houses from last week.  The median price is up $4,750 to $538,000. The average house was on the market for 48 days.

In the last 30 days, 118 condos were sold, up by 7 condos from last week.  The median price is down $15,750 to $259,250. The average condo was on the market for 56 days.

There are now 2,318 houses for sale, down by 129 from last week.  Condo inventory has fallen by 79 to 1036 suites.

(h)(r)(s)