Victoria’s building boom of the new millennium has often been referred to as a “proposal boom” in light of the many large-scale real-estate development proposals that ultimately failed. The west shore of the Capital region was notorious in this regard where literally dozens of residential towers upwards of 45-floors were vetted by municipal offices and never built.
http://vibrantvictoria.ca/local-news/downtown-victorias-sidelined-development-proposals/
First came the idea. Then came the late nights of Craigslist searching. And then it happened quickly: a trip to a derelict horse ranch in the Salinas Valley, an exchange of cash in an old barn, and a harrowing towing adventure up Highway 101 netted me my current abode—a 1959 Airstream travel trailer.
Read more: http://www.dwell.com/articles/the-airstream-life.html#ixzz2AzAs612s
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To say that the real estate market has been difficult to predict this fall would be an understatement. While we all expected the traditional boost in sales volume in the fall, following a soft summer, we didn’t see that happen. Instead, it seemed like most buyers pulled in their horns and decided to wait to see if prices were going to drop.
In many markets in Canada, we would expect to see prices fall sharply after a period of soft sales. But, as we do see time and time again, Victoria doesn’t always follow the same trends as other markets. Here, as buyers decided not to buy, sellers worked hard to hold their pricing and were punished with lower and lower sales volume – off 20-25% from where it should be at this time of the year. Prices did fall, but did not fall off of the cliff any many predicted.
So, we waited and wondered if sellers would give in and start accepting lower prices. But, it didn’t happen. Sure, there are a few amazing deals to be had. But, in most cases, sellers decided not to sell unless they could get a price that they were satisfied with. This is an excellent example, again, of the generally inflexible pricing in the Victoria market. It would be a long story to explain why our market is inflexible, but suffice it to say that economic factors play a smaller role in the need or desire to move than in most other markets in Canada.
With 20/20 hindsight, we can now see that prices were softest in mid-September and have been trending up since. We can also see that the number of days that it takes the average house to sell has been falling and now sits at a relatively low 41 days. The volume of sales is still lower than the average but is also trending in the right direction. My personal experience tells me that there is a lot of pent up demand by buyers out there. I have been in multiple offer situations with two of my listings in the last couple of weeks, something we generally only see in a hot market!
Are prices and volume about to recover? I certainly wouldn’t go out on a limb to predict that, but I do believe that once again we are having it proven to us that in our local market there are very few sellers who will sell at any price.
What does this teach buyers? If you find a good deal, buy it now because they can be few and far between.
What can sellers learn? There are lots of buyers out there and you can definitely attract them by offering a good property at a good price.
What does this teach the pundits? Victoria is a unique market that needs different treatment than many others. Expecting Victoria to follow Vancouver, Calgary, or Toronto will simply lead you astray.
Here are the raw results:
Over the last 30 days, 183 single family houses were sold, up by 15 houses from last week. The median price is up $5,500 to $530,000. The average house was on the market for 41 days.
In the last 30 days, 95 condos were sold, down by 9 condos from last week. The median price is up $5,000 to $260,000. The average condo was on the market for 58 days.
There are now 2,312 houses for sale, up by 07 from last week. Condo inventory has fallen by 5 to 1074 suites.
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With recent price drops of up to $130,000 on each home, Rainbow Hill is a stunning deal. Where else in Victoria can you hope to buy a 2000-3000 sqft brand new, premium, ocean & city view town home finished to an extremely high degree starting at UNDER $700,000 including net HST?
You've been asking for it, and now it is done! We have just launched a mobile version of our website, designed and scaled to work well on your IOS or Android phone.
You will be able to search for homes, find nearby for sale properties as you drive around, and much, much more.
When you have a chance, please visit PreferredHomes.ca on your phone and share your feedback with us. We appreciate your help as we continue to improve our service to you.
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From CBC news:
The governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, said Wednesday his inclination toward raising interest rates is “less imminent,” given risks to economic growth from tepid global demand and high household debt in Canada.
“The case for adjustment of interest rates has become less imminent,” Carney said at a news conference, but adding that “over time, rates are more likely to go up than not.”
Carney spoke after the release by the Bank of its most recent monetary policy report, which predicted relatively robust growth for Canada next year mostly as a result of increased exports as the global economy begins to mend.
The bank said Canada's real gross domestic product only grew by about one per cent in the July-September period, in part due to temporary factors and headwinds from weak global conditions.
That's half what it had expected in July and the weakest quarter of growth since the spring of 2011.
The main cause, it said, was temporary production shutdowns in the oilpatch during the summer.
"The bank expects growth in the Canadian economy to pick up in the coming quarters to a somewhat faster pace than that of its production potential," it said.
"The pick-up in growth from its trough in the third quarter of this year is expected to be driven primarily by a modest increase in net exports. This balances ongoing competitiveness challenges (high dollar) with the projected improvement in the growth of foreign activity."
But the bank has forecast the last three months of 2012 will see a rebound to 2.5 per cent growth and GDP advances of 2.6 per cent in each of the next three quarters.
On an annual basis, the bank says growth will average 2.2 per cent this year, 2.3 in 2013 and 2.4 in 2014.
However, the economy is still operating below capacity and won't be firing on all cylinders until the end of next year, it said.
CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld says the latest forecast suggests the bank will postpone any interest rate hike until early 2014.
Shenfeld bases that on his view that, although the Bank is prepared to hike in late 2013 if inflation moves higher, that economic growth will fall short of the bank’s prediction for 2013 and that the increase in household debt will slow down on its own.
The bank hardened its warning about household debt, explicitly saying it would consider the vulnerability of family finances in future decisions about interest rate levels, which it concedes have driven the housing market boom of the past few years.
On Wednesday, the bank noted that household debt, now calculated at more than 160 per cent of annual income, will likely continue to rise until levelling off in 2014.
"There are conflicting signals or mixed signals" about the financial health of Canadian households, Carney said.
Carney told reporters he hopes the central bank has made it clear in its various communications that if monetary policy has a role to address these issues, it will be "the last line of defence after taking in all other aspects and all other measures that could be taken into account."
Globally, the bank says risks have moderated somewhat because of aggressive action taken by the European Central Bank to provide breathing room for reforms to be implemented, and the announcement of a third-round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The bank said the latter move will likely boost growth by 1.3 percentage points in the U.S. in 2014. A stronger U.S. economy also lifts the Canadian boat, the bank said, by about 0.4 percentage points in the same year.
Although the bank expects exports to pick up gradually, the main drivers of the Canadian economy remain consumer consumption and business investment. The public sector has practically abandoned the field in terms of a growth generator as governments move to restraint, it said, resulting in a modest drag this year and equally modest stimulus next.
The bank also expects housing activity to continue to slow, but does not anticipate a crash, noting that despite "signs of overbuilding, the level of housing investment still remains near historical highs." That's especially true in the condo market, it said.
The bank still sees considerable risks to its base case scenario of a gradual improvement in the economy, particularly failure among policy-makers in Europe to control their debt crisis and in the U.S. to avoid a fiscal cliff at the end of this year that could sap four percentage points from growth.
The report followed the Bank's decision yesterday to keep its trendsetting policy interest rate, as expected, at one per cent for the 17th consecutive time.
Economists had been looking for signs the bank might soften its warning about hiking interest rates in the future but it kept the previous language largely intact.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/10/24/bank-canada-monetary-policy-report.html
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The number of houses and condos being sold is definitely a casualty of this soft market. However, at this point at least, the softening of home prices seems to have stopped. Yes, we do see the median price drop in this report. But, it had actually risen for the last three weeks.
I believe that we are seeing a bit of a stand-off right now. Buyers want to see prices come down, while most sellers have decided that if they can’t sell at a price that is comfortable to them, they simply won’t sell. Of course, those that must sell, must sell and there can be some good deals out there.
Over the last 30 days, 168 single family houses were sold, down by 31 houses from last week. The median price is down $13,500 to $524,500. The average house was on the market for 46 days.
In the last 30 days, 104 condos were sold, down by 7 condos from last week. The median price is unchanged at $255,000. The average condo was on the market for 60 days.
There are now 2,305 houses for sale, up by 6 from last week. Condo inventory has risen by 6 to 1079 suites.
The Bank of Canada once again opted to hold its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent this morning. Interest rates have been held constant for over two years, the longest such period since the 1950s. The Bank somewhat tempered its bias for higher future interest rates, including a softer statement regarding the appropriateness of a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus as excess supply in the economy is absorbed. In a bit of a surprise, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the growth in the Canadian economy this year to 2.2 per cent, but kept its 2013 forecast at 2.3 per cent growth. The Bank judges that at that pace of growth, the Canadian economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2013.
It is our view that monetary policy at the Bank of Canada will continue to be constrained by external events in the global economy and household debt growth at home. While the Bank's preference for tighter policy is clear, it is difficult to make a case for higher interest rates when core inflation is below the Bank's 2 per cent target and already slow economic growth is threatened by global uncertainty. Therefore, we are forecasting that the Bank of Canada will hold its target overnight rate at 1 per cent until mid-to-late 2013 when, conditioned on an improved global economic outlook, it may test the water with a 25 basis point rate increase.
From Cameron Muir, BCREA
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