To say that the real estate market has been difficult to predict this fall would be an understatement. While we all expected the traditional boost in sales volume in the fall, following a soft summer, we didn’t see that happen. Instead, it seemed like most buyers pulled in their horns and decided to wait to see if prices were going to drop.
In many markets in Canada, we would expect to see prices fall sharply after a period of soft sales. But, as we do see time and time again, Victoria doesn’t always follow the same trends as other markets. Here, as buyers decided not to buy, sellers worked hard to hold their pricing and were punished with lower and lower sales volume – off 20-25% from where it should be at this time of the year. Prices did fall, but did not fall off of the cliff any many predicted.
So, we waited and wondered if sellers would give in and start accepting lower prices. But, it didn’t happen. Sure, there are a few amazing deals to be had. But, in most cases, sellers decided not to sell unless they could get a price that they were satisfied with. This is an excellent example, again, of the generally inflexible pricing in the Victoria market. It would be a long story to explain why our market is inflexible, but suffice it to say that economic factors play a smaller role in the need or desire to move than in most other markets in Canada.
With 20/20 hindsight, we can now see that prices were softest in mid-September and have been trending up since. We can also see that the number of days that it takes the average house to sell has been falling and now sits at a relatively low 41 days. The volume of sales is still lower than the average but is also trending in the right direction. My personal experience tells me that there is a lot of pent up demand by buyers out there. I have been in multiple offer situations with two of my listings in the last couple of weeks, something we generally only see in a hot market!
Are prices and volume about to recover? I certainly wouldn’t go out on a limb to predict that, but I do believe that once again we are having it proven to us that in our local market there are very few sellers who will sell at any price.
What does this teach buyers? If you find a good deal, buy it now because they can be few and far between.
What can sellers learn? There are lots of buyers out there and you can definitely attract them by offering a good property at a good price.
What does this teach the pundits? Victoria is a unique market that needs different treatment than many others. Expecting Victoria to follow Vancouver, Calgary, or Toronto will simply lead you astray.
Here are the raw results:
Over the last 30 days, 183 single family houses were sold, up by 15 houses from last week. The median price is up $5,500 to $530,000. The average house was on the market for 41 days.
In the last 30 days, 95 condos were sold, down by 9 condos from last week. The median price is up $5,000 to $260,000. The average condo was on the market for 58 days.
There are now 2,312 houses for sale, up by 07 from last week. Condo inventory has fallen by 5 to 1074 suites.
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