Things have felt different this week… The phone is ringing more, and there seems to be increased activity overall in the market. Don’t get me wrong, the market is still slow with the volume of sales about 25% down from where it would normally be at this time of year. But, there is change in the tone of the conversations that we are having with buyers and sellers. Sellers are coming around to the reality that they need to price and prepare their properties extremely well to find a buyer. When they do that, they are seeing great results with a high number of showings and even quick offers. Buyers, most of them anyway, are realizing that even in a buyer’s market, that they need to make realistic offers or they just won’t get what they want.
The net result of buyers and sellers getting back on the same page is good news all round. Looking at single family houses, last week I reported that selling prices seemed to be trending upwards. That trend has continued this week with selling prices now up 3% from the low point in mid-September. That is tremendous news for sellers! The volume of sales also appears to be leveling off, although as we come to Christmas we still expect to see the normal seasonal slowdown. The inventory of houses for sale has dropped slightly as well. The cherry on top is the decrease in the days on market. Put all of these together, and we may actually be seeing a leveling or slight recovery in our market. I expect that prices will stay at a lower level than they were last year, simply due to normal market fluctuations combined with the mortgage rule changes from this Summer.
Even the condo market is looking a bit healthier, although the progress there is not established enough to call it a trend yet. Prices are up, the volume of sales is up, and inventory is down. However, there are several large condo projects underway in Victoria so this section of the market has a lot of inventory to absorb before I would call it healthy.
The message that I would take away with you today is that the sky is not falling. I know that some still think that real estate prices here in Victoria are going to crash, especially those who have something to gain or newspapers to sell. Although I think that we are in for an anemic market for a while yet, I see no current reason, or past proof, that we are going to see major price decreases in Victoria. Yes, our homes are extremely expensive here. But, those prices are supported by a relatively wealthy community who choose to live here, and don’t just come here for a job.
Combine the desirability of our city with the large government & educational presence, a robust high-tech sector, a significant retired population which consumes services but doesn’t take jobs, and a growing marine trades industry and there are just too many positive factors to allow our prices to sink too low.
Of course, that’s just my two bits, but I have read enough reports and have been to enough presentations to know that most economists agree.
Here are the stats as of today:
Over the last 30 days, 179 single family houses were sold, up by 1 houses from last week. The median price is up $3,500 to $530,000. The average house was on the market for 44 days.
In the last 30 days, 102 condos were sold, up by 16 condos from last week. The median price is up $13,250 to $270,000. The average condo was on the market for 59 days.
There are now 2,160 houses for sale, down by 09 from last week. Condo inventory has fallen by 11 to 1005 suites.
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